Over the horizon proliferation threats / edited by James J. Wirtz and Peter R. Lavoy.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Introduction / James J. Wirtz and Peter R. Lavoy -- Japan's nuclear option / Katsuhisa Furukawa -- Will Taiwan go nuclear? / Arthur S. Ding -- Nuclear proliferation and the Middle East's security dilemma : the case of Saudi Arabia / James A. Russell -- Motivations and capabilities to acquire nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons and missiles : South Africa / Noel Stott -- Nuclear energy and the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia / Tanya Ogilvie-White and Michael S. Malley -- Burma and nuclear proliferation / Andrew Selth -- Hindsight and foresight in South American nonproliferation trends in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela / Etel Solingen -- Ukraine : the case of a "nuclear inheritor" / Isabelle Facon -- The NPT regime and the challenge of shaping proliferation behavior / Christopher A. Ford -- Leveraging proliferation shocks / Lewis A. Dunn -- Intelligence, interdiction, and dissuasion : lessons from the campaign against Libyan proliferation / Wyn Q. Bowen -- Security assurances and the future of proliferation / Bruno Tertrais -- Options and new dynamics : chemical and biological weapons proliferation in 2020 / Michael Moodie -- Conclusion / Jeffrey W. Knopf.

Annotation In every decade of the nuclear era, one or two states have developed nuclear weapons despite the international community's opposition to proliferation. In the coming years, the breakdown of security arrangements, especially in the Middle East and Northeast Asia, could drive additional countries to seek their own nuclear, biological, or chemical (NBC) weapons and missiles. This likely would produce greater instability, more insecure states, and further proliferation. Are there steps concerned countries can take to anticipate, prevent, or dissuade the next generation of proliferators? Are there countries that might reassess their decision to forgo a nuclear arsenal?This volume brings together top international security experts to examine the issues affecting a dozen or so countries' nuclear weapons policies over the next decade. In Part I, National Decisions in Perspective, the work describes the domestic political consideration and international pressures that shape national nuclear policies of several key states. In Part II, Fostering Nonproliferation, the contributors discuss the factors that shape the future motivations and capabilities of various states to acquire nuclear weapons, and assess what the world community can do to counter this process. The future utility of bilateral and multilateral security assurances, treaty-based nonproliferation regimes, and other policy instruments are covered thoroughly.

English.

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