Climate change in the Midwest : a synthesis report for the national climate assessment / edited by Julie A. Winkler, Jeffrey A. Andresen, Jerry L. Hatfield, David Bidwell, Daniel Brown.

Includes bibliographical references.

Print version record.

Annotation Developed to inform the 2013 National Climate Assessment, and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage and conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Climate Change in the Midwest examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the eight states that make up the region. This state of the art assessment comes from a broad range of experts in academia, private industry, state and local governments, NGOs, professional societies, and impacted communities. It highlights past climate trends, projected climate change and vulnerabilities, and impacts to specific sectors. Rich in science and case studies, it examines the latest climate change impacts, scenarios, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity and offers decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region's inhabitants in the decades to come.

Machine generated contents note: ch. 1 Introduction to The Synthesis Report -- 1.1. About this Report -- 1.2. Regional Context -- 1.3. Organization -- References -- ch. 2 Historical Climate and Climate Trends in The Midwestern United States -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Influences of the Great Lakes -- 2.3. General Description -- 2.4. Vulnerabilities -- 2.4.1. Regional Floods -- 2.4.2. Severe Thunderstorms -- 2.4.3. Summer drought, heat, and excess rain -- 2.4.4. Heat Waves -- 2.4.5. Winter Storms -- 2.5. Regional Climate Trends -- 2.5.1. Paleoclimate -- 2.5.2. Instrumental Record -- 2.5.2.1. Temperature -- 2.5.2.2. Precipitation -- 2.5.2.3. Seasonality of Temperature and Precipitation Changes -- 2.5.2.4. Growing Season -- 2.5.2.5. Ice Cover -- 2.5.2.6. Snowfall -- 2.2.5.7. Cloudiness -- 2.5.2.8. Humidity -- 2.5.2.9. Wind -- 2.5.2.10. Extreme Precipitation -- 2.5.2.11. Extreme Temperatures -- 2.5.2.12. Drought -- 2.5.3. Synoptic Changes -- 2.6. Summary -- References -- ch. 3 Climate Projections for The Midwest: Availability, Interpretation, and Synthesis -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Climate Projections -- 3.2.1. Downscaling Methods -- 3.2.1.1. Dynamically-Downscaled Climate Projections -- 3.2.1.2. Statistically-Downscaled Climate Projections -- 3.2.2. Available Climate Change Projections for the National Climate Assessment Midwest Region -- 3.2.3. Considerations when Using and/or Interpreting Climate Projections -- 3.2.3.1. Influence of Regional Topography or Circulation on Climate -- 3.2.3.2. Ensembles and Multi-Model Means -- 3.2.3.3. "Shelf Life" of Climate Projections -- 3.2.4. Evaluation of Climate Projections -- 3.2.4.1. GCM Simulations -- 3.2.4.2. NARCCAP Simulations -- 3.3. Projected Future Climate Change for the Midwest Region -- 3.3.1. Precipitation -- 3.3.1.1. Annual and Seasonal Precipitation -- 3.3.1.2. Precipitation Intensity -- 3.3.2. Temperature -- 3.3.2.1. Annual and Seasonal Temperature -- 3.3.2.2. Temperature Thresholds and Indices -- 3.3.2.3. Freeze Risk -- 3.3.2.4. Apparent Temperature -- 3.3.3. Wind -- 3.4. Level of Confidence -- 3.5. Summary -- References -- ch. 4 Agriculture in The Midwest -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Historical Impacts on Crop Production -- 4.3. Sensitivity to Temperature -- 4.4. Potential Future Impacts -- 4.4.1. Temperature -- 4.4.2. CO2 Concentration and Evapotranspiration -- 4.4.3. Precipitation -- 4.4.4. Water Quality -- 4.4.5. Weeds, Pests, and Disease -- 4.4.6. Stresses on Livestock -- 4.5. Adaptation -- 4.6. Risk Assessment -- 4.7. Summary -- References -- ch. 5 Impacts on Biodiversity and Ecosystems -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. Linking Climate Impacts to Species and System Sensitivities -- 5.3. Observed Responses to Temperature -- 5.4. Changes in Species Ranges and Relative Abundances -- 5.5. Changes in Phenology -- 5.6. Changes in Genetics and Morphology -- 5.7. Changes in Key Disturbance Factors and Processes -- 5.8. Linking Observations to Future Changes -- 5.9. Assessing Vulnerabilities -- 5.10. Helping Species and Systems Adapt in the Midwest -- 5.10.1. Increase Connectivity and "Soften" Management -- 5.10.2. Continue to Proactively Address the Threat of Invasives -- 5.10.3. Shifting Some of our Conservation Attention from Species to "Stages" -- 5.10.4. Increasing "Green Infrastructure" to Handle Stormwater -- 5.10.5. Protect People and Nature by Restoring Functional Ecosystems in Watersheds Dominated by Agriculture -- 5.10.6. Moving toward Smarter Conservation -- 5.11. Five Key Points -- References -- ch. 6 Climate Change Vulnerabilities Within The Foresty Sector For The Midwestern United States -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. Organization -- 6.3. Considerations and Caveats -- 6.4. Forest Ecosystems -- 6.4.1. Key Vulnerabilities across the Midwest Region -- 6.4.2. Considerations Within Particular Ecoregions -- 6.5. Benefits from Forests -- 6.5.1. Forest Products -- 6.5.2. Water Resources -- 6.5.3. Carbon Storage -- 6.5.4. Recreational Opportunities -- 6.5.5. Cultural Values -- 6.6. Adaptation -- 6.6.1. Forest Ecosystems -- 6.6.2. Urban Forests -- 6.6.3. Forest Products -- 6.6.4. Water Resources -- 6.6.5. Carbon Storage -- 6.6.6. Recreational Opportunities -- 6.6.7. Cultural Values -- 6.7. Summary -- References -- ch. 7 Great Lakes Nearshore and Coastal Systems -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. Climate Stressors -- 7.2.1. Great Lakes Water Level Regimes (Water Levels) -- 7.2.2. Changing Storm Patterns and Precipitation -- 7.2.3. Great Lakes Thermal Regimes -- 7.3. Vulnerability of Great Lakes Coastal Systems to Climate Change -- 7.3.1. Hydrogeomorphology -- 7.3.2. Productivity and Water Quality -- 7.3.3. Coastal Fisheries -- 7.3.4. Ports and Harbors/Infrastructure -- 7.3.5. Coastal Property -- 7.4. Discussion -- 7.5. Recommendations -- 7.6. Summary -- References -- ch. 8 Climate Change and Energy -- 8.1. Introduction -- 8.1.1. Structure and Regulation of the Energy Sector -- 8.1.2. Energy Profile for the Midwest -- 8.2. Impacts on the Energy Sector -- 8.2.1. Climate Change and Energy Demand -- 8.2.2. Climate Change and Energy Supply -- 8.2.3. Climate Change Policy -- 8.3. Future Considerations and Issues -- 8.4. Summary -- References -- ch. 9 Health -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.2. Current Climate Sensitivities and Projected Risks for the Midwest -- 9.2.1. Heat Waves -- 9.2.2. Air Pollution Risks -- 9.2.2.1. Air Quality and Respiratory Disease -- 9.2.2.2. Aeroallergens -- 9.2.3. Waterborne Disease -- 9.2.4. Climate, Lake Ecology, and Health Risks -- 9.2.5. Vectorborne Infectious Diseases -- 9.2.5.1. West Nile Virus -- 9.2.5.2. Lyme Disease -- 9.3. Current Adaptive Capacity (Example for Heat Waves) -- 9.4. Health Co-Benefits of GHG Mitigation -- 9.4.1. Energy -- 9.4.2. Case Study: Co-Benefits of Alternative Transportation Futures from Improving Air Quality and Physical Fitness -- 9.5. Conclusion -- References -- ch. 10 Outdoor Recreation and Tourism -- 10.1. Introduction -- 10.2. Importance of Travel and Tourism to the U.S. Economy -- 10.3. Outdoor Recreation and Tourism (ORT) and Climate Variability and Change (CVC) -- 10.3.1. Direct and Indirect Implications of CVC for ORT -- 10.3.2. Implications of CVC for ORT -- Supply and Demand Side Factors -- 10.4. Implications of CVC for ORT in the Midwest -- 10.4.1. Application of the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) -- 10.4.2. Implications for Winter Sports -- 10.5. Adaptation -- 10.6. Summary -- References -- ch. 11 Climate Change Impacts on Transportation in The Midwest -- 11.1. Introduction -- 11.2. Transportation and Climate Change -- 11.2.1. Air -- 11.2.2. Water -- 11.2.3. Rail -- 11.2.4. Surface Transportation -- 11.3. Comparative Risk -- 11.3.1. Extreme Heat -- 11.3.2. Changing Precipitation Patterns -- 11.3.2.1. Flooding Risk -- 11.3.2.2. Snow -- 11.3.3. Great Lakes Water Levels -- 11.4. Ongoing Adaptation Efforts -- 11.4.1. Chicago -- 11.4.2. Wisconsin -- 11.4.3. Iowa -- 11.4.4. Michigan Department of Transportation -- 11.4.5. Federal Highways Administration (FHWA) -- 11.5. Research Needs -- 11.5.1. Quantifying Impacts -- 11.5.2. Adaptation Effectiveness -- 11.5.3. Uncertainty -- 11.6. Conclusions -- References -- ch.

12 Water Resources -- 12.1. Introduction -- 12.2. Historic Variability of Hydroclimate -- 12.2.1. Seasonal to Multi-Year Events -- 12.2.2. Frequency of Localized, Short-Term Extremes -- 12.2.3. Non-climatic Influences -- 12.2.4. Lake Water Temperature -- 12.2.5. Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Phenomenon-Warming Hole -- 12.3. Paleoclimatic Studies -- 12.4. Future Projections -- 12.4.1. Upper Mississippi/Missouri/Hudson Bay Watersheds -- 12.4.2. Ohio River Watershed -- 12.4.3. Great Lakes Watershed -- 12.4.4. Commonality Among Many Studies -- 12.5. Uncertainty and Probability -- 12.6. Conclusions -- References -- Focus Midwestern Levees -- Introduction -- Levee Condition -- Increasing Flood Risk -- Adaptation -- Conclusion -- References -- ch. 13 Complexity and Uncertainty: Implications for Climate Change Assessments -- 13.1. Introduction -- 13.2. Multiple Sources of Uncertainty -- 13.3. Climate Extremes -- 13.4. Co-Benefits of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies -- 13.5. Spatial Interactions and Linkages -- 13.6. Closing Remarks.

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