Latin America : vulnerabilities under construction? / [prepared by] Luis Cubeddu, Camilo E. Tovar, and Evridiki Tsounta.

By:

Cubeddu, Luis M [author.]

Contributor(s):

Material type: Text

TextSeries: IMF working paper ; WP/12/193.Publication details: [Place of publication not identified] : International Monetary Fu, 2012.Description: 1 online resource : illustrationsContent type:

text

Media type:

computer

Carrier type:

online resource

ISBN:

1475517599
9781475517590
9781475573350
1475573359
1475505426
9781475505429

Subject(s):

Genre/Form:

Additional physical formats: Print version:: Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?DDC classification:

332.72098

LOC classification:

HG2040.5.L29

Online resources:

Click here to access online

Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Latin America: Mortgage and Housing Market Developments; II. Developments in The Mortgage Credit and Real Estate Sector; A. Mortgage Credit; B. Construction Activity; C. House Prices; III. Making the Most of Imperfect Data; A. Identifying Mortgage Booms; Tables; 1. Data Availability on Select Financial and Housing Sector Indicators; B. Identifying Housing Price Booms; 2. Determinants of Equilibrium House Prices: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru; 2. Actual and Estimated Real House Prices; 3. House Price Over/(under)valuation; Box.

1. Colombia's Mortgage Crisis of the Late 1990s: A Cautionary TaleIV. The Household Debt Burden and Financial Balance Sheets; V. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations; References; Appendices; I. Data Definitions and Sources; II. Methodologies for Estimating Credit Booms and House Price Bubbles; III. Cointegration Tests.

Summary: This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.

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Includes bibliographical references.

This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.

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