Gaining new military capability : an experiment in concept development / John Birkler, C. Richard Neu, Glenn Kent.

"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense."

Includes bibliographical references.

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The process of modernizing U.S. military forces is the focus of this report. This process requires reinvigorating concept development efforts, thinking broadly about alternatives, and pursuing concept development before decisions are made about which services, which platforms, or which technologies are best suited for accomplishing current or new military tasks. In February and March 1996, RAND convened a concept options group (COG), which included broadly knowledgeable technologists drawn from a variety of scientific and engineering backgrounds, experienced military operators, and senior analysts and planners. By focusing on two specific military tasks, the COG considered options for using technologies that could enable U.S. forces to perform an existing military mission better, perform it differently, or gain a new capability. This report presents highlights from the COG discussions as well as some suggestions for convening future COGs.

Figures and Table -- Acronyms -- The Force Modernization Problem -- The Need for New Concepts -- A Process for Modernizing Forces -- How the Process Should Work -- Strategic Planners Establish Demands for Military Capabilities -- Creative Conceivers Formulate Options -- Top-Level Decisionmakers Choose Among Available Options -- Force Providers Implement Decisions -- Current Approaches to Force Modernization Are Less Than Ideal -- Thinking About Military Missions -- Military Missions -- Choosing Topics for a RAND Concept-Development Initiative -- The Concept Options Group: A New Forum for Concept Development -- The RAND COG Exercise -- Organizing COG Discussions -- What, Precisely, Will U.S. Forces Have to Do to Accomplish the Military Task Being Discussed? -- What Are the Characteristic Signatures of Relevant Targets? -- What Technologies Could Be Used to Exploit Signatures, Vulnerabilities, or Necessary Activities by Hostile Forces? -- How Could the Technologies Identified in Discussions of the Last Question Be Exploited Operationally? -- How Can We Shape the Environment to Make U.S. Technological and Operational Options More Effective? -- Process -- Some Promising Concepts -- UAV Operations to Maintain Persistent Surveillance -- A large, High-Flying UAV -- A Small, Low-Flying UAV -- Operational Concepts -- Shaping the Environment -- Ground-Based, Multimode Sensor Arrays -- Sensor Packages -- Deploying Sensors -- Operational Concepts -- Shaping the Environment -- The Current State of Technology.

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