Surprise attack : the victim's perspective / Ephraim Kam.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 241-257) and index.

Print version record.

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

English.

Frontmatter -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons -- Introduction -- Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack -- 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack -- 2. Information and Indicators -- 3. Intentions and Capabilities -- Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis -- 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information -- 5. The Process of Analysis -- Part III. The Environment -- 6. The Analyst and the Small Group -- 7. Organizational Obstacles -- 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers -- Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index

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