Belize.

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Cover; CONTENTS; BACKGROUND; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS; MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS; POLICY DISCUSSIONS; A.A More Ambitious Fiscal Stance to Restore Debt Sustainability and Create Credible Policy Buffers; B.A Stronger Financial System to Reduce Financial Stability and Fiscal Risks; C. More Proactive Policies to Buttress External Sector Resilience, and Enhance Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth; OTHER; STAFF APPRAISAL; 1. Real Sector Developments; FIGURES; 2. External Sector Developments; 3. Fiscal Sector Developments; 4. Monetary and Financial Sector Developments.

5. Debt Markets DevelopmentsTABLES; 1. Selected Social and Economic Indicators; 2. Operations of the Central Government; 3. Operations of the Banking System, 2009-15; 4. Balance of Payments, 2009-19; 5. Medium-Term Outlook, 2009-19; 6. Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Simulations, 2009-19; ANNEXES; I. Remaining Gaps in AML/CFT Framework; II. The 2014/15 Budget and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework; III. Belize-Debt Sustainability Analysis; IV. External Stability Assessment; V. Risks Assessment Matrix; VI. Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises; VII. National Health Insurance.

VIII. The National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030.

KEY ISSUESOutlook and risks. The economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, withsluggish real GDP growth, rising public debt and widening external current accountdeficits. International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels. The financialsystem would continue to be hampered by high NPLs and low capital buffers, especiallyat a systemic bank. Main fiscal risks include a court decision that could lead to a largerthan expected compensation to the former owners of the nationalized companies, weaknesses in a systemic bank, and the cost of the new public bank. Focus of the Consul.

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