A new economic growth engine for China : escaping the middle-income trap by not doing more of the same / editors, Wing Thye Woo [and others].

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ReferencesPart III. Institutional Reforms for Middle-term Growth: Upgrading the Hardware and Software; Reforming China's Public Pension System: Coping Effectively with Aging, Urbanization and Globalization Jin Feng and Lixin He; 1. Introduction; 2. The Basics of the Current Pension System; 3. The Problem Posed by an Aging Society; 4. The Incentive Problem in Basic Old Age Insurance; 5. The Problem of Low Investment Return on Pension Funds; 6. The Problem of Inequality in Pension Benefit; 7. Pension Reform 1: Raise Labor Participation Rate; 8. Pension Reform 2: Improve Labor Productivity.

Foreword Shangli Lin; Contents; List of Contributing Authors and Editors; Part I.A New Economic Growth Engine for the 21st Century: Change Out Not Scale Up the Present Policy Regime; The Major Types of Middle-income Trap That Threaten China Wing Thye Woo; 1. A New Stage in China's Economic Development but Will This be the Permanent Stage?; 2. Defining the Middle-Income Trap; 3. What Could Cause China to Fall into the Middle-Income Trap?; 4. The Likely Hardware Failures: Fiscal Stress from the State Banks and Low Productivity Growth from the State Enterprises.

5. The Likely Software Failures Are from Flaws in Governance6. The First Type of Likely Power Supply Failure Is Environmental Collapse in China; 7. The Second Type of Likely Power Supply Failure Is Trade Protectionism; 8. The Hardware Reform Agenda; 9. The Software Reform Agenda; 10. Dealing with Power Supply Failure Caused by Environmental Degradation; 11. Dealing with Power Supply Failure Caused by Trade Protectionism; 12. Final Remarks; References; Part II. Short-term Demand Management: Working the Hardware Correctly.

A Prediction of China's Economy in 2012: Soft Landing and Back to the Normal Gang Fan and Liping He1. Background and Origins of the Current Macroeconomic Movement; 2. 2011: Soft Landing Is in Progress; 3. The Outlook of China's Economy and Policy Guidelines in 2012; The Correction of China's Twin Surpluses Yongding Yu; The Long-run Growth and Short-run Fluctuations of the Chinese Economy Zhigang Yuan and Yuxin Yu; Introduction; 1. Long-Run Trend of Economic Growth in China; 1.1. Changes in labor supply; 1.2. Changes in capital accumulation.

1.3. Changes in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth1.4. Rising environmental cost; 2. Short-Run Fluctuations of the Chinese Economy; 2.1. The four-trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus plan; 2.2. The recent contractionary monetary policy; 2.3. The impact of administrative changes; 2.4. The impact of real estate regulations; 2.5. What is the likely macroeconomic situation in 2012?; 3. The Major Reforms Needed in the Future; 3.1. Reforms in the labor market; 3.2. Reforms in the land market; 3.3. Reforms in the financial market; 3.4. Transformation of the governmental function; 4. Conclusion.

This volume is a report by leading international economic experts on China's economic priorities in the coming years. From various aspects of the domestic and foreign situation, China has now reached a critical juncture in its economic development. Unless China is able to overcome the difficulties in undertaking further reforms in the next ten years, China would be caught in the middle-income trap and be unable to become a modern country. The future course of China's economic development is also of great concern to the rest of the world because the socio-political-economic conditions in China.

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