Who will be in the White House? predicting presidential elections

Includes bibliographical references (p. 133-142) and index.

Ch. 1. Trial Heat Polls -- App. 1.1. 2000 Forecasts for Gore: Comparison of Regression Results and Raw Trial Heat Data -- App. 1.2. Trial Heat Equations for 2004 Election Scenarios, 1952-2000 Data -- Ch. 2. Bellwethers -- App. 2.1. Bellwether Equations for 2004 Election Scenarios, 1952-2000 Data -- Ch. 3. Presidential Approval Ratings -- App. 3.1. Forecasts of 2000 Election: Regressions on Presidential Approval Ratings -- App. 3.2. Equations for 2004 Election Scenarios Using Presidential Approval Ratings -- Ch. 4. Other Public Opinion-Based Techniques -- Ch. 5. Judgment-Based Forecasting Techniques -- Ch. 6. Cycles in Presidential Elections -- Ch. 7. The Nomination Process and Campaigns -- Ch. 8. Performance of the Economy -- App. 8.1. Equations for 2004 Election Scenarios -- Ch. 9. Putting It All Together: Multivariate Forecasting Models -- Conclusion: A Forecasting Perspective of the 2000 Election.