Oil Prices and the Global Economy.
Arezki, Rabah, Mr.
Oil Prices and the Global Economy. - Washington, D.C., UNITED STATES : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 2017. - 1 online resource (31) - IMF Working Papers. .
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
147557780X (electronic bk.) 9781475577808 (electronic bk.)
10.5089/9781475572360.001 doi
997770 MIL
Petroleum industry and trade--Econometric models.
Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models.
Pétrole--Industrie et commerce--Modèles économétriques.
Produits pétroliers--Prix--Modèles économétriques.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS--Industries--General.
Petroleum industry and trade--Econometric models.
Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models.
Electronic books.
HD9560.5
338.27282
Oil Prices and the Global Economy. - Washington, D.C., UNITED STATES : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 2017. - 1 online resource (31) - IMF Working Papers. .
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
147557780X (electronic bk.) 9781475577808 (electronic bk.)
10.5089/9781475572360.001 doi
997770 MIL
Petroleum industry and trade--Econometric models.
Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models.
Pétrole--Industrie et commerce--Modèles économétriques.
Produits pétroliers--Prix--Modèles économétriques.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS--Industries--General.
Petroleum industry and trade--Econometric models.
Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models.
Electronic books.
HD9560.5
338.27282