Forbidden fruit : counterfactuals and international relations / Richard Ned Lebow.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Making sense of the world -- Counterfactual thought experiments -- Franz Ferdinand found alive: World War I unnecessary -- Leadership and the end of the Cold War: did it have to end this way? / coauthored with George W. Breslauer -- Scholars and causation 1 / coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock -- Scholars and causation 2. Experiment 4, instrument 1: unmaking American tragedies -- If Mozart had died at your age: psycho-logic versus statistical inference -- Heil to the chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and fascism.

Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations schol.

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