The Politics of Earthquake Prediction.

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Cover; Contents.

The Politics of Earthquake Prediction is a suspenseful account of what happens when scientists predict an enormous earthquake for a specific day--an earthquake that did not, in this instance, happen, but which, if it had, would have been one of the most destructive of our century. Working in a field where uncertainty abounds, Dr. Brian Brady of the U.S. Bureau of Mines and Dr. William Spence of the U.S. Geological Survey gradually came to the conclusion that a catastrophic quake would occur on June 28, 1981, off the coast of central Peru, near the great population center of Lima-Call.

Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- ONE. Introduction: Politics and Science -- TWO. A Prediction Contained, 1976-1979 -- THREE. The Stakes Increase, 1979 -- FOUR. Bureaucratic Politics Takes Over, 1980 -- FIVE. Late 1980: The Prediction Goes Public-in the U.S. -- SIX. Brady's 1981 "Trial": The First Day -- SEVEN. Hardball: The Second Day of the Trial -- EIGHT. The Controversy Continues -- NINE. "Doomsday" Approaches -and Passes -- TEN. Reflections -- NOTES -- INDEX

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